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For decades, liberal democracies have deluded themselves that China’s modernization would also bring about its democratization. They dreamed that economic liberalization in the world’s most populous country would automatically bring political freedom to its citizens. They convinced themselves that Western diplomatic engagement and Beijing’s integration into the international economy, with its entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), would temper the Chinese Communist Party’s authoritarianism. China, instead, has deliberately taken advantage of this opening, without embracing the values that underpinned it. At the time, this seemed like the right decision, but it has now become a strategic mistake. Beijing is connected to global trade and financial systems in ways that create risks that will be exceptionally difficult to untangle. Serious mistakes have been made, fueled in part by a failure to evaluate the conduct and intentions of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and by a shortsighted mercantilism that has chosen to put its own interests ahead of the general security interests of states. Minimizing friction between international economies is the goal of many post-World War II rules and institutions. This democratic governance is now under constant threat from China, Russia, Iran, and others, all of whom share an anti-Western and revanchist sentiment. Extricating economic ties is less difficult when dealing with Russia because its economy is in decline. But China is different. It is rich, industrialized, controls major global supply chains, and creates dependencies. It is also highly technology-oriented, with President Xi Jinping seeking global leadership in the sector.


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