"Judging from various current objective developments, although mainland China has always regarded peaceful reunification as a priority option, as an observer I believe that non-peaceful reunification is more likely to become a reality. Therefore, we need to prepare in advance for non-peaceful reunification."
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So begins the editorial by Jin Canrong - Professor at the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China, an expert on U.S. affairs published in Guancha on June 22.
A non-peaceful reunification of Taiwan is the most realistic and likely scenario but China should resolve three key issues before attacking the island, Canrong adds.
The questions are:
military preparedness;
financial preparation;
unity in domestic politics and international understanding.
Military preparedness
"The recent "Joint Sword-2024A" exercise this time has a special feature: it started cold, that is, it was not announced in advance and as soon as it was declared Chinese troops were already in the vicinity of the island. In addition, this military exercise has a wider coverage, closer to the island of Taiwan, a larger number of troops and a stronger meaning of actual combat. In fact, the eastern theater of war is being equipped with these means, which are already sufficient."
The key to preparing for duna non-peaceful reunification is military preparedness, the expert said.
Of course, if it actually takes action, the People's Liberation Army may want to handle the situation more effectively. If it wants to get it right, it must prepare in advance for the worst-case scenario, i.e. assuming the United States and the United States finds itself in trouble its allies will do everything to intervene, Canrong adds.
"In addition, all military enthusiasts should know that during the war, the sea-to-land landing battle is the most difficult to fight, and Taiwan's defense system is very good, because it was improved during the two Chiang Kai periods -shek, and hasn't stopped since. Along with US efforts to help, some military experts believe that Taiwan's defense system even surpasses Israel's."
"Considering Taiwan's strong defense capabilities and the difficulty of landing operations, combined with the global intervention of the United States and its allies, we must admit that liberating Taiwan by force is not an easy task."
"Of course, I also believe that our People's Liberation Army still has many methods that have not yet been proven, and they are intensifying their efforts for this purpose. By the way, although our military modernization is progressing very well, after all we have not fought in real combat for many years, so we must be prepared in this regard.", the expert said.
Financial preparation
"In terms of economics, as I mentioned in Observer.com's year-end “Answer Show,” there is a big problem in the current Chinese economy, which is the lack of strategic economic autonomy.”
"The size of the Chinese economy. When calculated based on the constant exchange rate in 2011, China's GDP reaches 79% of that of the United States. When calculated based on the current exchange rate, our GDP is 65% of that of the United States. If we look at purchasing power parity, it is 120% of that of the United States, which varies, but overall exceeds that of the United States. It can be said that the size of China's economy is very large."
"However, the Chinese economy is also quite fragile. Wheat must be imported. We are the largest wheat importer in the world. Last year we imported 169 million tons of wheat. In terms of oil, our external dependence is 73%. In terms of natural gas, our external dependence is 42%. We also lack many minerals."
One of the biggest limitations of the Chinese economy is the lack of market.
Our products are manufactured in large quantities. As data from the World Trade Organization show, our country's share of the international export market in 2023 will be 14.2%, also maintaining its status as the largest country in goods trade for 7 consecutive years, compared to manufacturing sector in other countries, our products are also cheap.
"What is worth mentioning is that our corporate reputation is particularly good - we haven't talked about it much before, but we will talk more about it in the future. Suppose a foreign businessman places an order in China and requests delivery on the 15th of the following month. The Chinese will definitely work overtime to complete the task. If this foreign businessman foolishly travels to India to place an order on the 15th, Indians are likely to say, "Huh? Does such a thing still exist?" and he will start cheating."
For Professor Canrong, India is not as reliable as China in trade.
"Generally speaking, China's manufacturing and product quality are excellent. However, there is a terrible dilemma now: our domestic market cannot absorb so many products, and we have to rely on the international market, especially the US market, to subsidize them in the name of export tax rebates, and the cumulative export tax rebates handled each year exceed one trillion yuan."
China is too dependent on the international market.
"The lack of domestic demand, the lack of markets, what I call the lack of strategic economic autonomy, is what we have to face."
Unity in domestic politics and international understanding
In addition to military and economic preparations, political unification is also necessary, concludes Canrong.
"At the moment, the internal attitude on the advisability of adopting non-peaceful means for reunification is not entirely uniform."
"Furthermore, we must do our best to gain the understanding of the international community. Many countries fully support the 'one China' principle, but we need to further consolidate it."
"For example, the "Joint Statement between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Coordination Partnership for a New Era Marking the 75th Anniversary of the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between the Two Countries" released on May 16 this year clearly stated: "Russia reiterates its adherence to the one-China principle. We recognize that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the People's Republic of China, we oppose any form of 'Taiwan independence' and we firmly support the measures of China to safeguard the nation's sovereignty and territorial integrity and achieve national reunification." - Pay attention to the last half of the sentence."
"I must underline this once again: although we have decided to reunify, our priority remains peaceful reunification. However, the reality is that the hope for peaceful reunification is fading, so we must prepare for non-peaceful reunification. Progress, including military, economic, domestic political and international understanding, all require serious work.", Canrong concludes.
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