Analysis of low-orbit broadband systems and prospects for the development of the satellite communications market based on them on the horizon to 2035

The volume of the modern global satellite communications market as of 2023 is estimated at $22.6 billion. The contribution of the Russian segment, according to experts, is approximately 2% of this amount, or $450 million (about 45 billion rubles at the exchange rate for December 2024). The global industry shows an annual growth rate of 11-13%. Such data are given in a study by J'son & Partners Consulting, the results of which were published at the end of December 2024.

It is noted that the existing satellite broadband Internet access systems (broadband Internet access systems) are considered, on the one hand, as a competitive environment for new low-orbit broadband access groups, on the other hand, as a basis for assessing the future market and requirements for low-orbit broadband access platforms. According to the presented forecasts, by 2035 the volume of the global satellite communications market will double, reaching $45- $50 billion. The share of the Russian segment may increase to about 2.5-3%, subject to the implementation of projects provided for by the Sphere program.

It is noted that the leader in the development of satellite Internet at the end of 2024 is the United States with the Starlink project. This system, which is in operation, will in the future number up to 42 thousand spacecraft. At the same time, Britain is starting to operate the OneWeb constellation, which will include 648 satellites. All other countries are only planning to deploy or commission similar platforms. The largest projects include:

• G60 Starlink (China) - 12 thousand spacecraft;

• Guo wang (China) - 12,992 satellites;

• IRIS2 (European Union) - 170 (or 290) spacecraft;

• Telesat Lightspeed (Canada) - 198 satellites;

• Project Kuiper (USA) - 3236 satellites;

• Rivada (USA) - 600 spacecraft;

• Dawn (Russia) - 272 satellites.

In Russia, as noted in the study, high expectations are associated with the indicated low-orbit system "Dawn" (LLC "Bureau 1440"), which is announced in the national project "Data Economics." It is emphasized that this group should become an analogue of the Starlink system: it will provide a solution to the problems of digital inequality by providing Internet access anywhere in Russia in 2027. However, the concept of "broadband access" is not disclosed in Russian regulatory documents and ITU-R recommendations. Among the difficulties are issues of both a market nature caused by sanctions actions (restriction of the supply of equipment, electronic component base and technologies for their production) of unfriendly countries in relation to Russia, and problematic issues of a technical nature.

Read also:

• Astropolitics, the space duel between the US and China: scenarios and strategies

• Chinese radar may use Starlink to detect stealth aircraft - report

• China's version of Starlink debuts in August with 12,000 satellites in network

• Submarine launches "satellite killer laser"! China has a new way to crack "Starlink"

A common problem for the global market is the high cost of subscriber terminals. Analysis of technical materials shows that reducing the cost of such equipment to a level acceptable to the mass market is based on an increase in the number of satellites in the orbital constellation. This minimizes scanning of the AFAP beam (active phased array antenna) and, as a result, reduces the cost of AFAP.