The 47th President of the United States Donald Trump will take office on January 20, 2025. Darren G. Spinck, an associate research fellow with the Henry Jackson Society (USA), dives into what the priorities of the foreign policy of his new administration will be and how relations between Kazakhstan and the United States can evolve in an interview with Kazinform News Agency correspondent.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a joint press conference with Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan's president, not pictured, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Tuesday, Jan. 16, 2018. Trump said he has "no idea" whether money from Kazakhstan was invested in Trump SoHo, a condominium hotel in lower Manhattan, while meeting with the country's authoritarian president. Photographer: Olivier Douliery/Pool via Bloomberg
Speaking of the foreign policy priorities of the new Trump administration, Darren Spinck identifies three of them, the first one being the achievement of political settlement between Russia and Ukraine.
The second is the achievement of peace in the Middle East. The current Biden administration has already reached the ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Hezbollah group. As for Donald Trump, he plans to achieve normalization of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
The third and probably the most difficult one is the coexistence with China and reaching an economic deal.
The expert believes that amid difficult geopolitical situation and the desire of the United States to find a solution to existing global problems, Central Asia has been out of the spotlight of the last two U.S. administrations, including the first term of the Trump presidency.
The current Biden administration has made some efforts to strengthen U.S. ties with Central Asian countries through the “C5+1” diplomatic initiative, but they have not been significant. The weak interest in the region is confirmed by the fact that none of the American presidents has visited the Central Asian region.
However, according to Darren Spinck, in the context of increasing competition between the United States and China in the field of high technology, AI and access to critical resources, the role of Central Asia may increase for the U.S.
“The most important points for the Trump administration in Central Asia will be connectivity and cooperation, which will consist in accelerating infrastructure development in the region by involving the U.S. private sector in diversifying existing transport corridors,” says Darren Spinck.
At the same time, the expert sees the following stages in the development of American-Kazakh relations.
First, the removal of legal obstacles to the growth of economic cooperation and investment attraction. In particular, the outdated “Jackson-Vanik Amendment” applies to Kazakhstan, which is an important obstacle to long-term economic relations with the United States.
“Repealing the “Jackson-Vanik Amendment” and granting the status of “Permanent Normal Trade Relations” (PNTR) will improve not only Kazakhstan's reputation, but also eliminate a certain level of political risks in the minds of American corporations and investors and make Astana a much more attractive place for investment and trade,” Darren Spinck emphasizes.
Secondly, the attraction of the American private sector and investors to Kazakhstan. One of the important directions will be joint cooperation with the U.S. institutions in the search for deposits of rare earth elements and the involvement of American mining companies for the extraction of natural resources with their further processing.
The repeal of the “Jackson-Vanik Amendment” would be an excellent opportunity for American companies to invest in renewable energy, which could stimulate great potential for Kazakh crypto mining capacities and ensure joint cooperation with existing IT-initiatives in the United States and Europe.
Third, the development of the transport infrastructure of the Middle Corridor, including highways and railways, the modernization of existing seaports, as well as air communication, which is crucial, since the United States intends not only to extract minerals, but also to be able to export them for intermediate processing.
Under the new Trump administration, the United States will seek to reindustrialize and transform itself into a large production base, which will require an increase in American exports and the Middle Corridor can become a safe transport corridor, not only to increase American exports to the Central Asian market, but also to transport rare earths, essential minerals and energy resources necessary for American production facilities.
The U.S., the UK and European partners have the “Blue Dot Network” platform for infrastructure project certification, which is able to attract investments from the private sector. The expert suggested that as the United States begins to strengthen ties in the Central Asian region through economic cooperation in the future, there is great potential for the U.S. to rely on Astana as a mediator in dialogue with Moscow and Beijing.
“The United States does have difficult political differences with Russia and China, while Kazakhstan could play a role in helping Washington overcome some contradictions with Moscow and Beijing,” Darren Spinck believes.
The expert reminded that Kazakhstan had previously played an important role in resolving conflicts in Syria as well as between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Thus, for the development of American-Kazakh relations, the expert recommends the American side first of all repeal the “Jackson-Vanik Amendment”, which will make it possible for the two countries to switch to free trade, one of the main conditions for strengthening economic relations, as well as the resumption of the “Blue Dot Network” to attract private foreign investments in Central Asia.
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