Beijing's interest in bolstering its military presence across its borders, including in Indian territory within the Himalayas, has been evident. Concerns are mounting that Beijing's increasing ties with Tajikistan could signal similar expansions in neighboring countries. With Russia, Tajikistan's traditional economic and security partner, deeply involved in the Ukraine conflict, China’s influence in the region is growing
After the SCO summit and Xi Jinping’s tour of Central Asia, the British newspaper The Telegraph decided to recall China’s construction of a secret military base in Tajikistan.
«The facility has been under construction for 10 years in a difficult-to-reach area at an altitude of 3,962 meters above sea level. There are troops from both countries at the base.
According to satellite imagery, China is constructing a secret military facility in Tajikistan in response to escalating security threats from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. This construction, ongoing for nearly a decade, began after China and Dushanbe signed a security agreement in 2016. Photo: Satellite images of 2022 China's secret military base under construction in remote Tajikistan Source: MAXAR
The military facility, located in the remote and mountainous region of Tajikistan, features look-out towers and troops from both nations, engaging in regular joint military drills showcased on Chinese state media. Neither government has publicly acknowledged the base, which extends a former Soviet outpost, yet images show a steady pace of construction, including access roads.
According to The Telegraph, China needs a base in Tajikistan for several reasons:
Due to the unstable situation in Afghanistan and to «create a front line of defense» on the border of Tajikistan;
To maintain control over the Uyghurs in Xinjiang;
To continue cooperation with Dushanbe within the framework of the counter-terrorism policy;
To protect their investments in Tajikistan (40 percent of the republic’s external debt is owed to the PRC).
The newspaper also notes the economic expansion of China and emphasizes that dependence on China will sooner or later turn into political and security dependence.
Meanwhile, Temur Umarov, an employee of the Carnegie Research Center in Berlin, emphasized in a comment to 24.kg news agency: China is really building a base in the Republic of Tajikistan. But this is not a military facility, but a base for the armed people’s militia, and Dushanbe is no less interested in it than Beijing.
«The very name of the base does not greatly change China’s presence in the region. But technically and legally it is an armed police base. First of all, Tajikistan needs it to ensure the security of the border with Afghanistan. China also needs this facility to ensure security on the boundaries of the country bordering China and Afghanistan. There is no hidden agenda here,» Temur Umarov said.
Strengthening geopolitical relations
On July 4, President Xi Jinping strengthened ties with Tajikistan during his third state visit.
Political scientist Parviz Mollojonov of International Alert notes that,
“The situation is that of a vacuum, and the vacuum is filled by China,” highlighting how China leverages Tajikistan’s security concerns over Afghanistan.
Since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, worries over Tajikistan’s 800-mile border with Afghanistan have intensified. China’s provision of ammunition and technology to Tajikistan aims to establish an "advanced line of defence," though long-term goals remain unclear.
Despite Beijing’s recognition of a Taliban-appointed ambassador and its efforts to build ties with the militant group, China’s increasing presence in the region also serves to suppress Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang, maintaining its control over this restive population while pursuing economic expansion into Central Asia and Europe.
Tajikistan has mirrored China's stringent “counter-terrorism” measures against Uyghurs, implementing policies that curb religious expression. Recent laws have banned the hijab, shaved men’s beards, closed mosques, and regulated religious teachings. These actions have provoked protests, violently dispersed by security forces, and driven some Tajiks abroad for greater religious freedom.
For President Emomali Rahmon, these policies are as much about consolidating power as they are about aligning with China. However, the impact of these measures on counter-terrorism remains questionable, with the potential for backlash in a nation where Islam is deeply ingrained.
Tajikistan has also emphasized its cultural ties with Iran, inaugurating a Tehran-funded drone factory in Dushanbe two years ago. This delicate balancing act aims to reassert Tajik identity while avoiding Western isolation.
Mollojonov advocates for a “multi-vector” foreign policy, suggesting Tajikistan maintain independence from both Russian and Chinese dominance.
China’s footprint in Tajikistan is substantial, reflected in numerous infrastructure projects funded by Beijing. President Xi’s recent visit saw the opening of Chinese-financed government buildings, including a presidential palace and a parliament building.
China is now Tajikistan’s largest foreign investor, once accounting for over 60% of Dushanbe’s external debt, now reduced to about 40%. The influx of Chinese mining rights and construction projects, though beneficial for some, has raised environmental and health concerns among locals.
In Ayni, a remote northern town, the impact of Chinese investment is evident. Locals like Mihirgul Noibova have benefited economically, yet there are worries about long-term environmental consequences from increased mining activities.
Across Tajikistan, the presence of Chinese goods and infrastructure is growing, from electric power boxes to public trash bins. The dependency on China extends to everyday life, with Chinese electric vehicles dominating Dushanbe’s taxi fleet, requiring Chinese parts and expertise for maintenance.
The deepening financial dependency on China raises fears of eventual political and security dependence. Mollojonov warns that China could justify a greater military presence in Tajikistan under the pretext of protecting its investments, leading to potential de facto occupation.
China is not building secret military base in Tajikistan – MFA of China
The official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, Lin Jian, denied data from The Telegraph that the PRC is building a military base in Tajikistan. RIA Novosti quoted him as saying.
«I am not aware of the situation you mentioned, but I can confidently say that China always adheres to an independent, peaceful foreign policy and does not have any military bases in Central Asia,» he said.
According to The Telegraph, the facility has been under construction for 10 years in a remote area at an altitude of 3,962 meters above sea level. There are troops from both countries at the base. However, the governments of China and Tajikistan deny this information.
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