Recently, Zhao Long, deputy director of the Institute of Global Governance at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS) and a special expert for the Beijing Dialogue, has been interviewed by foreign media to analyze the prospects for China and Russia to jointly develop a new shipping lane in the Arctic Ocean.
China regards the Arctic shipping channel as part of the "Silk Road on Ice", and the northern sea route will help greatly shorten the distance between China and Europe by sea. However, the complex environment and seasonal constraints of the Arctic Ocean pose challenges to the stability and reliability of the shipping lanes.
China and Russia have set up a sub-committee on Arctic shipping lane cooperation to promote mutually beneficial cooperation. However, Chinese companies still need to be cautious in their Arctic cooperation to avoid international sanctions.
The opening up of Arctic shipping lanes brings new opportunities for economic development for China, Russia and other countries, while also facing geopolitical and technical challenges.
On July 1, China's Ministry of Transportation and Communications North Sea Navigation Guarantee Center for the first time opened the "Arctic Route Maritime Safety Information" broadcasting business, the density of sea ice in key areas of the Arctic as well as meteorological information analysis and prediction, and the formation of the distribution of Arctic sea ice and meteorological forecast analysis of the newspaper.
Chinese container ship NewNew Polar Bear in a convoy on the Northern Sea Route during an eastbound voyage in October 2023. Source: Rosatomflot
On July 9, the British newspaper "The Times" published an article that this shows China's concern for the "Northern Sea Route". It is reported that the route will significantly shorten the distance between China and Europe by sea, and is expected to play a greater role in the future against the backdrop of the continuing reduction in the size of the Arctic sea ice, especially in the context of the Red Sea shipping lanes, which have traditionally been used for trade between China and Europe, are facing continued turbulence.
Zhao Long said in an interview with the newspaper that China sees the "Northern Sea Route" as a maritime economic corridor to build the "Silk Road on Ice" and connect the two markets of China and Europe. But he also emphasized that the role of the "Northern Sea Route" should not be exaggerated, because the Arctic Ocean ice-free period is still relatively short, and the complex maritime environment will bring uncertainty to the transportation.
The Times said that the "Northern Sea Route" will bypass the Strait of Malacca and other key deployment of the U.S. military waters, and will help China and Russia trade transactions "out of the U.S. line of sight". Russia has reportedly deployed nuclear-powered icebreakers, while China has set up organizations in Shanghai and Harbin to study the construction of nuclear-powered icebreakers.
According to the Times, Russia needs China's help to develop the Northern Sea Route and to achieve its goal of increasing the capacity of the Northern Sea Route by 3.5 times by 2035. In 2023, only 80 ships will use the Northern Sea Route, about half of which will be carrying Russian LNG. In comparison, 26,000 ships transited the Suez Canal during the same period.
The report pointed out that although China and Russia have great prospects for cooperation in the Arctic Ocean, Russia has long had reservations about the participation of other countries in Arctic affairs, while China wants to promote the "internationalization" of the Arctic shipping lanes.
Zhao Long said the Chinese government is firmly opposed to any form of unilateral sanctions. However, Chinese companies need to be very careful when cooperating with Russia in Arctic energy and shipping to avoid relevant sanctions. At the same time, China also wants to avoid the "anti-Western" label, which limits its diplomatic options.
The South China Morning Post (SCMP) also interviewed Zhao Long on July 2 for an in-depth discussion of Sino-Russian cooperation in the Arctic Ocean. According to the report, Russia is now more active in developing the "Northern Sea Route", especially after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and has changed its reserved attitude.
In May, China and Russia agreed to set up a sub-committee on China-Russia Arctic waterway cooperation under the framework of the mechanism of the two countries' prime ministers' regular meeting committees, to carry out the Arctic development and utilization of the Arctic, as well as other mutually beneficial cooperation matters.
Zhao Long said China can help explore the economic, technical and environmental feasibility of the "Northern Sea Route" to complement international maritime transportation channels in the face of the growing Red Sea crisis. He believes the two countries can also cooperate in areas such as infrastructure, shipbuilding and energy exploration.
A Rosatom icebreaker escorting a cargo ship in the Gulf of Yenisei. The state-owned nuclear energy company hopes to increase trade off Russia's northern coast tenfold over the next decade. (Image source: The Times)
In June, during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Rosatom Arctic, a subsidiary of Russia's State Atomic Energy Corporation (Rosatom), and China's Hainan Yangpu Shuojia International Shipping Co. Ltd. signed an agreement of intent to utilize the "Northern Sea Route" to establish an all-year-round container line between the ports of the two countries.
On July 5, Russia held a grand opening ceremony of the Russian-Chinese Arctic shipping line container express railroad section "Arctic Express No. 1", a train loaded with containers departed and loaded in the Arkhangelsk seaport after shipment, through the northern sea route to China. Panov, the special representative of the Russian State Atomic Energy Group for Arctic issues, said: "From the port of Shanghai, it takes 25-30 days to Arkhangelsk, the distance is 7,000 nautical miles. While the traditional route through the Suez Canal takes 12,000 nautical miles, the Northern Sea Route saves about 40 percent on the voyage."
As climate change persists and international geopolitical games heat up, the Arctic region is receiving increasing attention from many sides.
In March this year, Hong Nong, a special expert of the Beijing Dialogue, published an article in the South China Morning Post, analyzing the reopening of the Arctic Council dialogue two years after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and arguing that the participation of Russia and the U.S. in the dialogue is of great significance, and will help to promote the restoration and development of the Arctic's international governance mechanism.
It is reported that the content provided by the maritime safety information broadcasting business of the Arctic route is jointly produced and developed by Tianjin Coastal Radio and Tianjin Ocean Center Meteorological Station. Through the integration of Fengyun meteorological satellites and a variety of meteorological telemetry remote sensing satellite data, combined with the actual needs of Arctic routes, it analyzes and predicts the density of sea ice and meteorological information for the key sea areas, such as the Bering Strait, the Dmitry Laptev Strait, the Velikitskiy Strait, the Strait of Karak Strait and other key sea areas. It analyzes and predicts the density of sea ice and meteorological information in key areas such as the Bering Strait, Velikitskiy Strait, Kara Strait, etc., and forms analytical reports on the distribution of Arctic sea ice and meteorological forecast.
Tianjin Coastal Radio broadcasts meteorological forecasts and live sea ice conditions via single sideband radio telephone from July 1 to October 31 each year.
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