Studying the Chinese vision to help us in our assessment. This in-depth analysis, written by Jin Canrong, a scholar of Chinese international relations and professor and vice dean of the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China, uses the concept of "the era of great contention" to specifically understand and deeply analyze the "great changes unseen in a century". The "era of great contention" means that the global order has undergone a fundamental change, from the Western dominance of the past 500 years to the current "rise of the East and decline of the West". The specific manifestations of the "era of great contention" are the emergence of a new international structure, a new modernization model, a new industrial revolution and new global governance. China, an "industrialized, vast and powerful nation", will be the key variable of the four new changes and the decisive core of the "rise of the East", so there will be structural conflicts between it and the United States. Since 2017 the political and academic circles has generally accepted the view that "the only thing certain is uncertainty". This concept reflects a global trend that the world is rapidly entering a new stage with more significant uncertainty. In particular, Western leading countries, such as the United States, Western European countries and Japan, have shown clear signs of declining political stability and evolving towards a more disordered and chaotic state. The author believes that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not only the most significant international conflict in the world in the 30 years since the end of the Cold War, but also constitutes the most dangerous focus in the current chaotic international order.
by Nicola and Gabriele Iuvinale
Introduction
In recent years, the global order is facing increasing uncertainty as the current international system undergoes an unprecedented profound transformation. Since 2017, with the inauguration of former US President Donald Trump, the Western world, including the political and academic circles, has generally accepted the view that "the only thing certain is uncertainty". This concept reflects a global trend that the world is rapidly entering a new stage with more significant uncertainty. In particular, Western leading countries, such as the United States, Western European countries and Japan, have shown clear signs of declining political stability and evolving towards a more disordered and chaotic state. This intensification of internal contradictions in Western countries is a prominent manifestation of the widespread uncertainty in today's world. At the same time, the world economy is also facing unprecedented challenges of uncertainty. For several consecutive years, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have had to lower their global economic growth expectations, and many key indicators of international trade have shown a pessimistic trend. In addition, the acceleration of climate change and the increase in the frequency of natural disasters, especially the frequent global droughts and floods in recent years, have further exacerbated the uncertainty of the global economy.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine that broke out in February 2022 is undoubtedly a key event that has exacerbated the instability of the global situation. The author believes that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not only the most significant international conflict in the world in the 30 years since the end of the Cold War, but also constitutes the most dangerous focus in the current chaotic international order. On the one hand, its impact on the international situation goes far beyond Russia and Ukraine. Some scholars and politicians have defined this war as a proxy war, and the United States is the main supporter behind Ukraine. In the current international system, the only few countries with comprehensive strategic autonomy are the United States, Russia and China. The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war means that two of the major powers are in direct military confrontation. Although the United States has not directly sent troops to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict so far, Ukraine's support weapons, battlefield military intelligence and subsequent military training are almost all provided by the United States and its allies. 34 of the 36 major countries in the so-called "Western countries" are involved. Therefore, the essence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the Russian-American conflict, which manifests itself as a direct military confrontation; on the other hand, it lasts for a long time. At present, the military operations between the two sides have been going on for nearly two years and have not yet been determined.
In addition, since 2023, the frequency of global wars has increased, especially in the Middle East, where conflicts between Palestine and Israel have intensified again. These local wars have exacerbated the chaotic state of the international order. In general, the familiar peaceful and stable world is accelerating into an unstable state.
In the face of this series of intensified uncertainties and intensified international conflicts, it is necessary to examine the global changes from a more macro and far-reaching perspective. The author believes that the "great changes unseen in a century", the authoritative strategic judgment of the Chinese government on the current world situation since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, is the best summary of the instability and disorder of the current international order. "Great changes unseen in a century" was first mentioned by President Xi Jinping in his speech at the 2017 Annual Working Conference of Ambassadors Abroad on December 28, 2017. Later, he pointed out the view that "China is currently in the best period of development since modern times, and the world is in a great change unseen in a century" at the Central Foreign Affairs Work Conference in June 2018. Later, in his New Year's message in 2019, President Xi Jinping once again pointed out the judgment that "looking at the world, we are facing a great change unseen in a century".
The report of the 20th CPC National Congress further pointed out that the great changes in the world today, which have not been seen in a century, are accelerating. That is, "At present, the changes in the world, the times and history are unfolding in unprecedented ways. On the one hand, the historical trend of peace, development, cooperation and win-win is unstoppable. The will of the people and the general trend determine that the future of mankind will eventually be bright. On the other hand, hegemonic and bullying behaviors such as bullying the weak, plundering by trickery and zero-sum games are deeply harmful. The peace deficit, development deficit, security deficit and governance deficit are aggravated, and human society is facing unprecedented challenges." This is an overall conclusion on the content of the great changes.
The “great changes unseen in a century” and its further discussion provide a comprehensive analytical framework for understanding the current global political and economic turmoil. On the one hand, this judgment breaks away from the shackles of “Western-centrism” and comprehensively considers the issue of international order from a global perspective, including all countries in the East and the West; on the other hand, it also takes a longer-term view of the time period. The 100-year historical background of the great changes proposed by President Xi Jinping has never referred to the 100 years from the beginning of the 20th century in terms of numerical calculation, but has considered a longer-term 500 years. Therefore, the judgment of “great changes unseen in a century” is based on a longer-term and broader perspective on global and long-term history, and has carefully considered the time and space of the East and the West. The author believes that under such a background, the accelerated evolution of the “great changes unseen in a century” means that the great changes and challenges in the international order are unprecedented, and fundamental changes have taken place, and the world has entered a “world of great contention.”
1. Definition of the “Age of Great Contention”: Fundamental Changes in the World Order
The term "era of great contention" comes from the explanation in Han Feizi's Eight Sayings: "In times of great trouble, using tools that are not necessary is not the preparation of a wise man; in times of great contention, following the path of courtesy and yielding is not the governance of a sage." Through this statement, Han Feizi not only described the fundamental difference between his time and the ancient peaceful period, but also profoundly pointed out the wisdom and strategy of governance in troubled times. Using "era of great contention" to understand "the great changes that have not happened in a century" needs to give it a more contemporary connotation.
1. The connotation of “the era of great contention”
In the context of exploring Chinese history, the concept of "the era of great contention" mainly covers two important aspects: on the one hand, according to Han Feizi's description, it clearly refers to the hegemony of the princes in the Spring and Autumn Period and the hegemony of the heroes in the Warring States Period. From the competition among many princes in the Spring and Autumn Period, to the reduction of the number of countries to seven powerful countries in the Warring States Period, and then to the final comprehensive unification of the Qin State, this historical process not only witnessed countless bloody conflicts, but also reflected the extreme suffering faced by the people of that era. It is based on this background that Mencius emphasized the moral position of "no righteous war in the Spring and Autumn Period". On the other hand, the concept also refers to the turbulent period of each dynasty change. Since the Qin Dynasty unified the six kingdoms, China has experienced many unified dynasties in history, such as Qin and Han, Sui and Tang, Song, Yuan, Ming and Qing, each dynasty has its prosperous and stable period, such as the reign of Wen and Jing, the reign of Zhenguan, the reign of Kaiyuan, and the reign of Kangxi and Qianlong, showing the brilliant achievements of Chinese civilization and the peak of social governance. However, whenever these unified dynasties collapsed, the country would fall into chaos again, with social unrest and a sharp decline in population, and it would have to face the difficult process of re-experiencing the "era of great contention". Whether it was the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period or the period of dynasty change, the core feature of the "era of great contention" was the collapse of the old order and the lack of a new order, as well as the urgent need to rebuild a new order.
The historical experience of China's many "eras of great contention" provides a unique perspective for people today to understand the great changes that have not happened in a century. The current reshaping of the international order, just like the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period and the period of dynasty change, is undergoing a fundamental change, marking the beginning of a transitional period. The old international order is collapsing, and the new order has not yet been established. The author believes that this transitional period refers to the transition from the long-term Western-dominated international structure to the current "rise of the East and decline of the West". The so-called "international structure" refers to a very stable balance of power between countries over a period of time. The balance of power between countries is the basic structure and core of the international structure, which determines the relationship between the international order and countries. Simply put, in an era, whoever has the greatest power can dominate the international structure of this era. In the past 10 years, the international structure in which the West has had an absolute advantage for the past 500 years has changed, and the national power of various countries has "risen in the East and declined in the West", which has caused fundamental changes in the international order. This is the connotation of the "era of great contention".
2. From Western dominance to the rise of the East and the decline of the West
In order to explore the phenomenon of "the rise of the East and the decline of the West" in the international situation in depth, we must first objectively recognize that in the past 500 years of history, Europe, which represented the Western world, and later the United States, significantly surpassed China, the Arab world, and other civilizations and countries in terms of power. During this period, Western countries undoubtedly dominated the world's international situation. It was the dominance of the West that shaped the status of various countries on the international stage, which in turn triggered the "rise and fall" trend seen today. The key question is why Western countries 500 years ago were able to surpass other civilizations and countries in national power? The author believes that this is mainly due to two historical breakthroughs.
The first breakthrough was the "Great Geographical Discovery". In 1492, Columbus discovered the New World, and in 1522, Magellan completed his circumnavigation of the world. These two historical events not only enabled the West to surpass other civilizations in terms of knowledge, but also brought unprecedented expansion to the West in terms of resource control. In terms of knowledge, the Western world took the lead in fully understanding the world's geographical structure, including the shape of the earth, the distribution of the four oceans, and the location of the seven continents, and these key information were not mastered by other civilizations at the time. Therefore, after the Great Geographical Discovery, Westerners had a clear advantage over other civilizations in the field of knowledge. In terms of resource control, in just 200 years after the Great Geographical Discovery, the area of territory controlled by Western countries increased tenfold. The original area of Europe was 10.18 million square kilometers, and the newly discovered North America, South America, Africa and Oceania that were gradually colonized through new routes, and the North and Central Asia regions where Russia gradually expanded, significantly expanded the scope of control of Western countries.
This territorial expansion is not only an important milestone in the history of human development competition, but also clearly shows that civilizations that control more extensive resources have an advantage in the competition for survival and development. The significant advantages of Western countries in the production and variety of food, precious metal resources, and energy resources are based on the significant expansion of their controlled territory, and these advantages have jointly promoted the West's leading position in the world.
Another major breakthrough was the Industrial Revolution and the subsequent Scientific and Technological Revolution that occurred 300 to 200 years ago. The great geographical discoveries enabled Western countries to take the lead in knowledge and resources, while the success of the Industrial Revolution and the Scientific and Technological Revolution further established the West's absolute advantage in the global balance of power. Why the Industrial Revolution first broke out in the West has always been the focus of academic discussion. British scholar Joseph Needham proposed the famous "Needham Question" in his book "Science and Technology in China", the main content of which is that if we focus on human civilization 1,000 years ago, China in the Song Dynasty was in the world's leading position in terms of economic development level, scientific and technological development level, urbanization rate and literacy rate. Therefore, Joseph Needham wondered why China, which was in the leading position in economy and technology 1,000 years ago, failed to trigger the scientific and industrial revolution hundreds of years ago.
This article attempts to answer the "Needham Question". The first reason is related to labor. As mentioned above, after the great geographical discoveries, Western countries went out of Europe and controlled vast new territories, but with this came a serious problem of insufficient human resources. Despite the bloody slave trade, in the 200 years of development, the population controlled did not match the land area, and the problem of labor shortage always existed. Therefore, Western countries have the need to invent machinery to replace manpower - to use machinery to do work to make up for the shortage of labor. In contrast, in China during the same period, the population maintained a steady growth. Until the Qianlong period in the 18th century, China's population accounted for nearly 1/3 of the world's total population, and there was abundant manual labor. Moreover, China is mainly a self-sufficient small peasant economy, and the demand for replacing manual labor is very low. As Engels once pointed out when discussing the relationship between practice and cognitive development, "Once there is a technical need in society, this need will push science forward more than 10 universities." Western countries have an urgent need for labor to replace human labor, while other civilizations and countries do not. This need has promoted Europe's exploration of industrial technology, which is an explanation for the first industrial revolution in Europe.
Another explanation for the Needham Question involves the impact of war. Over the past 500 years, the frequency of wars between European countries was much higher than that of China, which had been governed by a unified dynasty for a long time. Specifically, the Western Expedition of the Mongols in the 13th century brought gunpowder invented in China to Europe, which in turn promoted the application and development of artillery in the military. Professor Wen Yi pointed out that the development of modern science is a direct product of hot weapon warfare. Especially in Europe, the fierce competition between countries based on gunpowder and artillery, as well as the huge pressure and social demand for victory in the arms race, gave birth to the so-called "scientific revolution". Artillery, as a decisive weapon in war, prompted European countries to invest a lot of resources in studying its principles, and to devote themselves to production, development and improvement to enhance its power, which constituted the background and conditions of the times for the birth of the scientific revolution. For example, Professor Wen Yi mentioned that the study of the trajectory of artillery flight stimulated Galileo and Newton's pioneering work on classical mechanics, as well as the birth of Cartesian coordinates and calculus in modern mathematics. As a professor of military science, Galileo's important discoveries in the study of the laws of motion of objects were partly derived from his observation of the trajectory of artillery shells; at the same time, scientists of the same period as Newton, such as Halley and Hooke, also studied parabolas and fluid mechanics, which were closely related to military applications. Newton extended the theoretical model of artillery shell launch to the study of the laws of motion of terrestrial spheres under the action of gravity, further laying the foundation for classical physics. Therefore, the demand for artillery in war not only promoted the research of European scientists three or four hundred years ago, but was also funded by the government in order to provide more effective weapons for war. These studies provided rich inspiration and materials for the creation of classical physics, and also provided the necessary technical and knowledge foundation for the birth of modern industry, which ultimately led to the germination of modern industry in Europe.
Driven by both labor demand and war motivation, Europe was the first to break through the threshold of the Industrial Revolution and the Scientific Revolution. This achievement, combined with the historic breakthrough of the Great Geographical Discovery, greatly enhanced the national strength of Western countries, giving them an overwhelming advantage in the world order over the past 300 years. However, in this century, the advantages brought by the Great Geographical Discovery and the first three industrial revolutions have gradually diminished and can no longer determine the relative strength of national power. Especially in the past 10 years, the international advantage pattern that has long been composed of Western countries has begun to undergo fundamental changes. This change has led to the "rise of the East and the decline of the West" in the international balance of power. The existing international order is disintegrating, and a new order has not yet been formed. The world is in a new "world of great contention."
II. Specific manifestations of the “era of great contention”: four new changes
As mentioned above, the world today is in the midst of "the accelerated evolution of a great change unseen in a century", and is in the midst of a "great struggle" where the global order has undergone a fundamental transformation and the international landscape is showing a "rise of the East and decline of the West". In the era of great struggle, the international landscape is changing, the model of modernization is changing, the layout of the world's productive forces is changing, and the problems facing mankind are changing. Therefore, it brings about a new international landscape, a new model of modernization, a new industrial revolution and a new global governance. The author believes that understanding the four "new" can grasp the core meaning of the "great change unseen in a century".
1. New international landscape
The new international landscape is undergoing a significant transformation from the long-term Western dominance to the “rise of the East and decline of the West”. In terms of the “rise of the East”, the author quoted the profound views of Kishore Mahbubani, a famous Singaporean diplomat and outstanding scholar, who cleverly summarized the forces of the rise of the East as “CIA”, referring to China, India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). As for the core countries of the “decline of the West”, the author believes that they mainly include the European Union and Japan, which occupy an advanced position in the global economic and political landscape. As mentioned earlier, the international landscape describes a relatively stable international power comparison relationship over a specific period of time. In the process of quantifying national power, this article uses two basic and important indicators: population and economic output, among which the economic output is mainly measured by gross domestic product (GDP). As for the so-called three major forces of the “rise of the East”, as of 2023, the total population of the “CIA” countries and regions referred to has exceeded 3.4 billion, accounting for about 40% of the world’s total population. In terms of economic output, China has leapt into second place in the world in terms of GDP since 2010, and has shown a significant lead over any other single country except the United States.
China's economic size and its share of European countries (Source: Internet)
Under the leadership of the Modi government, India's GDP has maintained steady and rapid growth over the past eight years, surpassing Western developed countries such as Canada, Italy, France and the United Kingdom to become the world's fifth largest economy. In 2023, it announced its goal of surpassing Germany and Japan in GDP and reaching the third place in the world in the next five years.
The IMF predicts that by 2027, India's economy will be 20% larger than that of the UK (Source: Bloomberg)
The economic growth of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in the early 21st century was also exceptionally remarkable, with a combined GDP of less than US$700 billion in 2000 to more than US$3 trillion today, demonstrating a remarkable level of development.
In the "Westward" section, this article mainly focuses on the European Union and Japan among developed countries. As mentioned earlier in the article, the West is usually referred to as a broad concept of about 36 countries including the United States, Western Europe and Japan. This group is mainly composed of "three big and five small", of which "three big" refers specifically to the United States, Western Europe and Japan, and "five small" refers to Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Israel and South Korea, whose total population accounts for about 1/8 of the total human population. This article believes that the "three big" constitutes the key pillar of the status of the Western world. Among these three major forces, although the United States still shows strong national strength, the strength of Western Europe and Japan has shown a decreasing trend. Take the European Union as an example. When it was established in 1992, the total GDP of the founding 15 countries reached 7.41 trillion US dollars, exceeding the 6.52 trillion US dollars of the United States at that time, ranking first in the world. However, by 2022, even if the number of EU member states has expanded to 27 countries, its total GDP will only be 16.65 trillion US dollars, not only lagging behind the United States and China, but also slipping to third place in the global ranking. The same is true for Japan. As a relatively weaker link among the United States, Europe and Japan, its GDP in 2022 was only US$4.4 trillion, far lower than US$5.76 trillion in 2010, affected by multiple factors such as the depreciation of the yen.
Not only in terms of economic aggregate, Europe and Japan also appear to lag slightly behind the United States and China in the application and development of new technologies.
From a global perspective, due to the obvious changes in the balance of national power, the international landscape dominated by Western countries for the past 500 years is undergoing a fundamental transformation, and a new international landscape of "the rise of the East and the decline of the West" is accelerating.
2. New Modernization Model
The new modernization model refers to Chinese-style modernization, which is different from the previous Western modernization model. The Chinese-style modernization model is socialist modernization led by the Communist Party of China. It has both the common characteristics of modernization in various countries and Chinese characteristics based on its own national conditions. It is a modernization with a huge population, common prosperity for all people, coordination between material and spiritual civilization, harmonious coexistence between man and nature, and a path of peaceful development.
China's model for promoting modernization is different from that of the West. First, the subject of organizing the modernization of the country is different. According to Professor Yang Guangbin, there are two main ways of modernization in Western countries: one is the "social individual-centered" model dominated by business groups, such as the United States and the United Kingdom; the other is the "state-centered" model dominated by bureaucratic institutions, such as Germany and Japan. These two models together constitute the Western modernization paradigm. In contrast, the modernization path promoted by New China over the past 70 years has adopted a different strategy, namely "party-centeredness". Under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, Chinese-style modernization organically combines the spirit of communism, the common ideological concern of all mankind, the attitude of all political values for the people, and the ability to effectively organize the people. As China's ruling party, it has always taken the mass line as its basic organizational principle and has always taken serving the masses as its purpose in promoting modernization. On this basis, China is gradually moving towards a modern country, which is completely different from the content of Western political thought over the past 300 years.
Secondly, the difficulties and challenges faced by China in promoting modernization are also different from those of other modernizing countries. On the one hand, China has a huge population base. The total population of Western countries that have achieved modernization, such as the United States, Europe, and Japan, is about 1 billion, accounting for only 1/8 of the world's total population; while China's population is 1.4 billion, which means that the task of China's modernization is to bring the Chinese people, who account for more than 1/6 of the world's total population and are larger than the total population of all developed countries, into modernization. The huge population size puts higher demands on the creation model and distribution mechanism of social wealth, and in reality, countries with huge populations are often underdeveloped and poor countries, and the starting point for achieving modernization is also lower. China has turned this into its own advantage, turning the high population base into a "scale effect" with a large domestic market and large demand. On the other hand, China's starting point for modernization is low. At the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the country was facing a situation of poverty and weakness, which coincided with the advent of the third industrial revolution in the mid-20th century. Therefore, China needs to catch up in a shorter period of time and from a weaker foundation. China has achieved remarkable success in industrialization in just over 70 years, in sharp contrast to the industrialization process of Western countries that lasted for hundreds of years. Thirdly, China has been promoting modernization through peaceful development. In the history of world politics, the Chinese model is the first country to achieve national modernization through peaceful development rather than war and plunder. Therefore, it has fundamentally changed the rise of Western countries and the way they influence the world. In summary, Chinese modernization is not only different from the Western model, but also has made great contributions to the practice of promoting industrialization and modernization of mankind, which is of great significance to the world, even greater than that of the United States and Europe.
Over the past few centuries, due to the dominant position of Western countries in the world, confidence in their development model has increased significantly. According to this view, the modernization of human civilization began in Europe, and successful cases are mainly concentrated in Europe and the United States. Japan and the Asian "Four Little Dragons" of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan Province of China, which achieved modernization after World War II, are also seen as the results of learning from the West and accepting Western industrial transfer. Therefore, the Western model of modernization is considered to be an inevitable choice for the development of human civilization, and it is not only a model but also the only path. The values of its civilization are recognized as universal values, and any views that deviate from this trajectory are regarded as heresy. Therefore, the political and academic circles of Western countries firmly believe that for developing countries, the path to modernization must follow the Western model. Therefore, in the past, Western political and academic circles often despised or denied China's modernization model.
The author's point of view is that in the past 10 years, the US strategic field has recognized China's rise as a modern country through a non-Western model in a unique way, which is specifically manifested in the "China threat theory". In the "National Security Strategy Report of the United States" released by the Trump administration in 2017, China and Russia were positioned as "revisionist countries" that challenge the global order dominated by the United States, and at the same time, the long-standing "engagement" policy toward China that "supporting China's rise and integrating into the post-war international order will promote China's liberalization" was clearly denied. The Biden administration continued and strengthened this view. In the "National Security Strategy Report of the United States" in 2022, China was regarded as the only competitor with the willingness to change the international order dominated by the United States and with more and more economic, diplomatic, military and technological resources to achieve this goal. Since 2018, the US Department of Defense has regarded strategic competition between countries rather than terrorism as the primary issue of US national security and defined China as a "strategic competitor". By 2022, the US Department of Defense more clearly regarded China as the United States' primary military competitor, and positioned Russia, North Korea and Iran as "challengers to the existing order." Therefore, the US strategic field has upgraded its cognition, viewing China's national strength as a threat to the US status and challenging the Western model, indirectly recognizing China's success in achieving modernization through a non-Western model. As the best among the elites of Western countries, the US strategic community's change of attitude and judgment have had a profound impact on Western politics, academia and the public, marking the end of the era of absolute, unique and exclusive views on the Western model.
In the "era of great contention", China will provide the world with a new method and path to promote national modernization, namely the Chinese model of modernization.
3. New Industrial Revolution
The new industrial revolution refers to the fourth industrial revolution, which is coming in the era of "great contention". In the first three industrial revolutions, China did not contribute much, but I believe that in the fourth industrial revolution, China will make a decisive contribution.
In the history of human civilization, human development can be roughly divided into two stages: agricultural civilization and industrial civilization. The fundamental difference lies in the transformation of the mode of production: agricultural civilization relies on manual labor, while industrial civilization is based on mechanical production. Therefore, modern civilization can be equated with the industrial civilization stage, and the modernization process of human civilization is essentially the process of industrialization. In this process, the three industrial revolutions marked the most significant and critical turning points, promoted the significant progress of productivity, promoted the leapfrog development of civilization, and laid the foundation for the innovation of society, thought, system and art. It can be said that the industrial revolution is the premise of everything, and the revolutions in society, thought, system and art are the results and products of the progress of productivity. So far, the three industrial revolutions experienced by mankind are marked by steam engines, internal combustion engines and electrification, and computers. Objectively speaking, these three revolutions are mainly the achievements of Western countries, among which the Anglo-Saxon English-speaking countries, especially Britain and the United States, played a decisive role in this process. Britain and the United States contributed two and a half industrial revolutions: first, in 1776, British engineer James Watt built the first steam engine with practical application value, which kicked off the first industrial revolution; second, the second industrial revolution was centered on the widespread use of electricity and the emergence of internal combustion engines, and mainly took place in the United States and Germany; finally, the third industrial revolution was centered on the United States, marked by the application of nuclear energy and the development of computer technology, thus opening a new chapter in human civilization entering the Internet age.
A historical review shows that Britain and the United States not only led the three industrial revolutions, but their contributions to technological progress in modern times have also earned them unparalleled global influence, including control of hard power and soft power. In terms of hard power, Britain and the United States have dominated the world order with their political, military and economic strength respectively. Britain, as the "Empire on which the Sun Never Sets", dominated the global pattern for nearly 200 years, while the subsequent "American Empire" dominated the next 100 years. In terms of military, since 90% of global trade relies on sea transportation, Britain and the United States have firmly controlled the world's sea power through their naval forces. Economically, the monetary hegemony of the British pound and the US dollar further consolidates the dominant position of Britain and the United States in the global financial system. In terms of soft power, Britain and the United States are also unrivaled in their influence in the academic and cultural fields. Most scientific disciplines originated from the English education system, which has gathered a large number of talents from all over the world; and in terms of cultural communication, the global dominance of English is almost unmatched, becoming the preferred language for international communication. By leading the three industrial revolutions, Britain and the United States have established their central position in the world power structure over the past 300 years.
When exploring China's relationship with the first two industrial revolutions, we can see a process of missing historical opportunities. For the first industrial revolution, China adopted an attitude of "no chance, no chance". When the Industrial Revolution greatly increased Britain's strength, Britain confidently tried to enter China, and this effort reached a high point in 1787 when Britain sent a formal mission led by Charles Allen Cathcart to visit China for the first time. Subsequently, in 1792, Britain sent the Macartney Mission to China again and successfully met with Emperor Qianlong. Although Britain tried many times to establish diplomatic relations with China and promote trade, for various reasons, the feudal Chinese empire rejected these proposals and missed the first industrial revolution. For the second industrial revolution, China's attitude turned to "want but don't get". After the failure of the two Opium Wars, China deeply realized its disadvantages in front of Western industrial civilization and awakened to the "great changes that have not happened in three thousand years". In order to strengthen itself and save itself, China launched the Westernization Movement to learn from Western industrial achievements. However, due to Japanese aggression and internal problems, this attempt ultimately failed. The first Industrial Revolution, “not having the opportunity”, further widened the gap between China and the West, leading to the failure of the two Opium Wars; and the second Industrial Revolution, “wanting but not getting”, made China completely fall behind the world, and eventually faced the suffering of the comprehensive invasion of modern Japanese imperialism that had experienced two Industrial Revolutions. The improper handling of the relationship between these two Industrial Revolutions is one of the important reasons for China’s century of national humiliation in modern history. This period of history reflects the profound impact of a country’s loss of position and role in the global industrialization process and the missed transformation opportunities on its development trajectory.
After the founding of the People's Republic of China, China's relationship with the industrial revolution has undergone a fundamental change. At the institutional level, the socialist revolution and socialist construction under the leadership of the Communist Party of China have laid the fundamental political premise and institutional foundation for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Based on this transformation, China not only "made up" the content of the first two industrial revolutions, but also seized the historical opportunity at the end of the third industrial revolution and actively participated in it, becoming one of the main countries in industrial upgrading at this stage, and achieved remarkable achievements, realizing the transformation from a backward agricultural country to an industrial power, and becoming one of the few countries in the world that has mastered a complete industrial system.
The rise of the Fourth Industrial Revolution marks a major historical opportunity. Currently, the Fourth Industrial Revolution focuses on four key directions: artificial intelligence, life sciences, new industrial materials and new energy technologies.
In the fourth wave of industrial revolution, we will see the extensive application of emerging technologies. (Source: Internet)
Take artificial intelligence as an example. So far, among all kinds of artificial intelligence technologies, relatively cutting-edge technology applications include large language deep learning models, such as ChatGPT, which represent the United States' leading position in scientific and technological achievements. China is closely following in the continuous research and development of large language models, and has shown similar development trends in other fields of artificial intelligence. Important achievements have also been made in AI technologies for specific applications such as image recognition, natural language processing, and autonomous driving. In contrast, countries such as Europe and Japan are relatively slow in research and development. Taking the development of new energy technologies as an example, the next energy revolution is expected to be centered on nuclear fusion technology. Although the technology currently faces great difficulties in breakthroughs, significant progress has been made in conventional new energy fields such as wind energy, solar energy and electric energy, as well as related applications such as automobiles. China's development in new energy technologies is particularly eye-catching. Especially in the field of new energy vehicles, China has become the world's largest market. China's new energy vehicle production and sales have led the world for many years, making China surpass Japan in 2023 to become the world's largest automobile exporter. This not only demonstrates China's leading position in new energy vehicle technology innovation and industrialization, but also reflects the Chinese government's firm determination and effective measures to promote the green and low-carbon development strategy. In addition, China's development in the fields of wind and solar energy is also worthy of attention. China has become the world's largest producer and installer of wind and solar power generation equipment. These achievements have not only reduced dependence on fossil fuels, but also promoted the use of clean energy worldwide, which is of great significance for addressing climate change and promoting sustainable development. In general, in the competition of the fourth scientific and technological revolution, the United States has shown a strong ability in scientific research and innovation, while China has shown a stronger ability in the commercialization of technology, and other countries are currently lagging behind China and the United States.
In the era of "great contention", facing the opportunities and challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, China is continuously improving its scientific and technological innovation capabilities and industrial competitiveness through a series of measures such as increasing R&D investment, optimizing the innovation environment, and strengthening international cooperation. These efforts have not only had a profound impact on China's own economic and social development, but also contributed to global scientific and technological progress and industrial transformation . China's role and actions in the Fourth Industrial Revolution will be different from the past, and it is expected to achieve leadership in certain key areas and contribute to the progress of human civilization.
4. New Global Governance
The fourth new thing is "new global governance". Since the great geographical discoveries, human society has entered the process of globalization and formed an interconnected global system. The global problems that followed also require the establishment of corresponding global governance mechanisms. Historically, global governance has been implemented in accordance with plans formulated by Western countries. During the Cold War, in order to counter the Soviet camp, the United States and its Western allies actively operated and maintained their own alliance system internationally, which enabled them to maintain a "superficial" fairness and justice in issues such as global security governance. However, with the end of the Cold War and the advent of the "era of great contention", especially against the backdrop of various problems in Western countries, Western countries have increasingly shown the characteristics of Western-centrism in operating their dominant global governance system.
This approach transforms the global governance framework into a tool for maintaining the privileges and political purposes of Western developed countries, especially the Western-dominated global security governance architecture, which has increasingly aroused widespread dissatisfaction among developing countries. Since 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has become the most significant security challenge in the world, and such tensions should have been mediated and eased by the global security governance mechanism. However, at the G20 Finance Ministers and Foreign Ministers' Meeting that year, some Western countries led by the United States mainly pursued their own interests, used the meeting agenda to build political alliances, exacerbated rather than eased the security issues between Russia and Ukraine, and took an aggressive stance against Russia as a member state. At the G20 Finance Ministers' Meeting, the United States insisted on not supporting any statement that did not contain condemnatory remarks, resulting in the failure to issue a joint statement in the end, forcing the host country India to issue a "Summary and Outcome Document of the Chair Country" mentioning different views and assessments on the current situation and sanctions.
At the G20 Foreign Ministers' Meeting, the remarks of US Secretary of State Blinken further pushed the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to the center of discussion, resulting in the marginalization of topics such as poverty alleviation and climate finance, which were originally prepared by India and widely concerned by developing countries. It can be seen that the current global security governance architecture, whether it is the United Nations, the G20 meeting or the APEC meeting, is hindered by the excessive focus of Western countries on their own interests and the formation of small groups, which has widely aroused dissatisfaction among developing countries. Indian Prime Minister Modi publicly stated that the global governance system has failed. Therefore, it is imperative to adjust and reform the structure and model of global security governance. Some scholars have proposed that the establishment of a new international security order must at least ensure that the interaction between countries is based on the principle of reciprocity, and the influence of major powers on international norms and institutions should be kept within a reasonable range; the international security order should be based on independence, equality and the rule of law, while recognizing the diversity of countries in rule-making; countries should also maintain the independence of their "local democratic values" instead of unconditionally accepting a single value concept. These views emphasize that when building a new international security system, global diversity and complexity must be taken into account to promote more just and balanced international relations.
The world needs a new security governance structure and order. China, which has entered a new era and made a great leap from standing up, getting rich to becoming strong, has provided a new choice for those countries and nations in the world that want to accelerate development and maintain their independence, and has contributed Chinese wisdom and solutions to solving human problems. On the one hand, President Xi Jinping proposed and gradually enriched the overall national security concept, including its goal of promoting the building of a community with a shared future for mankind with all countries in the world, organically unifying China's own security and international common security, and launched a Chinese security governance approach that is different from traditional Western security theory, and proposed and advocated a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable global security concept. On the other hand, as President Xi Jinping emphasized, China's economic fundamentals of strong resilience, sufficient potential, wide room for maneuver and long-term improvement will not change. China has the ability to establish a new security architecture that is compatible with its economic foundation and promote sustainable security through sustainable development. In 2022, President Xi Jinping solemnly put forward the "Global Security Initiative". The "six insistences" of its core concept accurately and directly responded to the problems mentioned above in today's global security governance, such as the functional failure, strong Western-centrism, and dissatisfaction of developing countries with the status quo. It is a Chinese solution that can effectively promote the reform of global security governance and build a community with a shared future for mankind. Compared with the global security governance dominated by the West, such a governance solution has a more balanced mechanism, a more morally correct, a more reasonable global security pattern, and can provide more protection for the third world.
In the face of the urgent need to solve the economic development problems of developing countries in global governance, the Belt and Road Initiative, as a public product proposed by China, demonstrates a development concept different from that of the West. Since the end of the Cold War, global governance led by the United States has often followed the rules and standards of "neoliberalism" in the field of economic development, including the promotion of Western democratic systems and economic privatization, aiming to build a "liberal international order." However, in the context of the "world of great contention," a series of problems such as economic recession, political differences, and social instability faced by Western countries have not only exacerbated their domestic difficulties, but also had a negative impact on the world. More and more scholars, including Western scholars, have begun to realize that the "free world order" led by the United States is facing collapse. The international community is pessimistic about the political and economic governance solutions guided by neoliberalism and questions the sustainability of this model. Some views clearly point out that the United States has become a major obstacle to the development of international productivity. In the process of pursuing their own development and national interests, countries are forced to try to get rid of the international system built by the United States.
The Belt and Road Initiative has adopted a different approach, emphasizing win-win cooperation, with the goal of promoting economic cooperation and common development among countries along the route. The initiative is based on the principles of solidarity, mutual trust, equality, mutual benefit, inclusiveness, mutual learning, and win-win cooperation. It abandons the pursuit of a single national interest and adheres to the principle of "joint consultation, joint construction, and shared benefits". Some scholars believe that the global governance concept represented by the Belt and Road Initiative advocates empathy and mutual understanding, and by enhancing exchanges and understanding among civilizations, it avoids the collective confrontational thinking of "clash of civilizations" and promotes harmonious coexistence among different civilizations. It can be said that the cooperation model of the Belt and Road Initiative is not only China's cause, but also a cause jointly participated by all countries in the world, reflecting a concept different from the Western international relations system and interest judgment.
The author believes that since the world entered the "era of great contention", the model of global governance has gradually changed from Western dominance to "co-governance between China and the West". For example, the Global Security Initiative and the Belt and Road Initiative are China's solutions to global governance in recent years. In the future, China will participate more actively in global governance, as emphasized in the report of the 20th CPC National Congress: "China actively participates in the reform and construction of the global governance system, practices the global governance concept of extensive consultation, joint construction and sharing, adheres to true multilateralism, promotes the democratization of international relations, and promotes the development of global governance in a more just and reasonable direction."
3. China is a key variable in the “era of great contention”
The previous article discussed and summarized the new international pattern, new modernization model, new industrial revolution and new global governance brought about by the "era of great contention". All new changes are closely related to China. First, the new international pattern is mainly reflected in the "rise of the East and the decline of the West", among which the rise of China is the core element. The economic development of ASEAN countries has benefited from the expansion of imports and exports driven by China's economic growth, while India's development has been supported by Western countries to a certain extent due to investment and support from China. Secondly, the new modernization model refers to the socialist road with Chinese characteristics and its modernization process. Then, in terms of the fourth industrial revolution, China not only keeps pace with the United States, but also becomes the main competitor of the United States. Finally, the new global governance model is summarized as "co-governance of China and the West". Therefore, it can be considered that in the major changes in global development, China is not only a key variable, but also the main force driving positive changes.
1. Reasons why China is a key variable and its impact on the world
In the global trend of "the rise of the East and the decline of the West", the reason why China, rather than other developing countries, has become the key rising force is attributed to the fact that China has taken several key measures at the strategic level.
First, China is committed to industrialization and regards it as the foundation of becoming a strong country. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, facing the challenges of weak economic foundation and insufficient industrial capacity, Mao Zedong, as the first generation of the core leadership of the Communist Party of China, set national industrialization as the primary task to achieve modernization. At the first National People's Congress in 1954, Mao Zedong proposed a grand blueprint to build China into an industrialized country, marking that industrialization has become the primary goal of achieving modernization. The first generation of leaders of the People's Republic of China has unremittingly promoted the industrialization process of the People's Republic of China in the face of no matter how severe the external environment and challenges are. The country's industrialization funds were accumulated through the hard work of the first generation of builders, and technology was obtained through international cooperation, especially the 156 major industrial projects introduced from the Soviet Union, which absorbed the achievements of the first and second industrial revolutions, marking the largest transfer of intellectual property rights in the history of human industrialization, enabling China to basically establish a system of major industrial projects and lay the foundation for rapid development after reform and opening up. With the deepening of reform and opening up, China actively learned from developed countries, introduced the achievements of the third industrial revolution, and made them widely applied and developed in China. Finally, after entering the 21st century, China's industrialization was basically achieved, and the scale of manufacturing has long maintained a leading position in the world.
Secondly, based on the effective promotion of industrialization, China has transformed its huge population and vast land area into important resource advantages. On the one hand, the large population supports the development of the domestic market and promotes the internal circulation of the economy. The large population provides a foundation for the cultivation of professional talents in the fields of science and technology, management and innovation. On the other hand, China's industrialization process has effectively utilized its vast land resources and transformed its potential geographical advantages into a powerful driving force for economic development. By deploying industrial projects across the country, the utilization efficiency of land resources has been improved, China's competitiveness in the global industrial chain has been enhanced, and it has become an important support for its sustained economic growth. This has enabled China to have a true "vast land and giant family". Furthermore, the spirit of self-improvement and inclusiveness in Chinese traditional culture have provided spiritual support and cultural heritage for national modernization, promoted opening up and international cooperation, efficiently learned and absorbed advanced technology and experience, and also prompted China to adhere to a peaceful and friendly foreign policy. China's modernization process is achieved in a peaceful way that does not rely on war plunder but pursues mutual benefit and win-win results. This is in sharp contrast to the Western countries' model of resource allocation that relies on war to create confrontation between countries and within the country, which is conducive to consolidating and developing China's relations with other developing countries.
These factors constitute the reason why China has become a key variable in the "rise of the East and the decline of the West", and are also the basis for China's advantages in inter-state competition in the "era of great contention". They will also show a development path different from the West to the vast developing countries outside the "East" and "West", providing a new learning model. Many developing countries face similar challenges as China, such as weak industrialization foundation, large number of poor people, ineffective use of vast land, and lack of external resources and capital accumulation. China's development model has successfully transformed its population size and land area into development advantages through state-led industrialization and market economic reforms, adopted inclusive political concepts, and adhered to the path of peaceful development. This provides a reference for other developing countries to maintain independence and autonomy in the context of globalization, and also shows how to strike a balance between maintaining national sovereignty and promoting economic modernization. China's development experience and path make it essentially different from other latecomers in history. In the view of Francis Fukuyama, the proponent of the "end of history theory", China is an "alternative challenger" to the Western model and will pose a subversive challenge to Western civilization. Therefore, in the "era of great contention", the contradiction between China and the United States, the only superpower at present, is fundamentally irreconcilable and has become a structural contradiction.
2. Structural contradictions between China and the United States
The United States sees the phenomenon of "the rise of the East and the decline of the West" as a new stage in the traditional Western historical narrative, that is, the competition for hegemony between the great powers has entered a new period. For example, China's "two centenary goals" are widely but misunderstood in American political circles as China's strategy to surpass the United States and become the world's leading power by 2049. As a country that maintains hegemony, the United States firmly opposes any behavior that may threaten or challenge its leadership, thus forming a structural contradiction with China. The United States' comprehensive strategic confrontation strategy against China has continued and intensified, starting with the Obama administration's "Asia-Pacific rebalancing" policy and continuing through the Trump administration's trade protectionism and trade and technology war strategies, until the Biden administration clearly pointed out in its policy report that the next 10 years will be a critical period for the competition between the United States and China, and set the goal of achieving a decisive victory in the competition with China (Out-competing China). The development and strengthening of this series of policies reflects the structural changes in the US policy toward China.
Domestically, the government has clearly expressed its position of all-out confrontation with China and has successfully shaped the public perception of the "China threat." This hostile image of China reflects the United States' comprehensive strategic layout in the fields of security, economy, and high technology, covering interactions and collaborations between multinational corporations, academic institutions, and other entities. These interactions and collaborations transcend the partisan differences in domestic American politics and form a cross-party political consensus. As of 2023, the United States has achieved a consensus on competition and confrontation with China at the "whole government" level and is moving towards a broader "whole society" level, with the goal of forming an all-round strategic competition alliance against China that includes government and society. Internationally, the United States has strengthened its alliances against China. In the field of technological competition, the strategy adopted by the United States is to implement more precise containment measures against China in the core areas of key great power competition. In terms of building camp confrontation, the United States attempts to shape the narrative of "democratic countries" in the fields of science and technology and economy based on values, and establish a "democratic technology alliance" targeting China's high-tech exchanges and industrial chain supply. From the Trump to the Biden administration, the United States and its allies' technology sanctions strategy against China has increasingly tended to the so-called "small courtyard and high wall" strategy. In the geopolitical competition around China, the United States has launched the "Indo-Pacific Strategy". Through mechanisms such as the US-UK-Australia Trilateral Alliance (AUKUS), the US-Japan-India-Australia Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and the Five Eyes Alliance (FVEY), it aims to NATO-ize the "Indo-Pacific region" and include China in NATO's discussion scope to achieve NATO's "Indo-Pacificization". Through these measures, it creates military pressure and security risks in areas surrounding China.
With the structural contradictions between China and the United States, the external environment China faces is significantly different from the situation during the past 40 years of reform and opening up, and the risk of war between China and the United States has increased compared with before. From the end of World War II to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the main contradiction between the United States and the Soviet Union was manifested as a "cold war", while the current relationship between China and the United States is more like a "cold peace". Therefore, we should not expect that Sino-US relations will improve significantly in the short term, but should recognize that the United States' comprehensive competition with China is an important long-term trend.
3. China’s response to the “era of great contention”
In the "era of great contention", the contradictions between China and the old beneficiaries of the world will become increasingly prominent, especially the structural contradictions between China and the United States. China must have a clear understanding of this and be prepared to deal with it.
First, China must achieve absolute internal unity. We must deeply understand the "two establishments" and resolutely practice the "two safeguards", establish Comrade Xi Jinping's core position in the Party Central Committee and the core position of the entire Party, and establish the guiding position of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era; resolutely safeguard General Secretary Xi Jinping's core position in the Party Central Committee and the core position of the entire Party, and resolutely safeguard the authority and centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee to maintain unity. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out that "uphold and strengthen the overall leadership of the Party. Resolutely safeguard the authority and centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee, implement the Party's leadership in all areas, aspects and links of the Party and state affairs, so that the Party will always be the most reliable backbone of all the people when storms come, ensure the correct direction of China's socialist modernization, ensure that we have a strong political cohesion for unity and struggle, develop self-confidence, and gather the tremendous power of unity and overcoming difficulties." Historical experience tells us that in the order reorganization period such as the era of great contention, countries with internal unity often have a greater chance of winning.
Secondly, China must give priority to ensuring its internal development, especially the high-quality development of the economy, and must adhere to the focus on economic construction. In international relations, the game between countries is essentially a confrontation of strength. Without a strong comprehensive national strength, it is difficult to support the competition among major powers in the long term. Among the comprehensive national strength, economic strength is the foundation. As long as the Chinese economy maintains a high-quality medium-to-high-speed development trend, it can further narrow the gap in strength with the overall developed countries in the United States and the West, and will also help the development of China's scientific and technological strength and military strength. In addition, we strive to develop an internal economic cycle, stimulate domestic demand by ensuring people's livelihood and developing employment, and ensure the stability and prosperity of China's huge market. In short, without good economic development as a foundation, external games will lack confidence.
Thirdly, in order to further face the increasing pressure from the United States and the West on China, it is important to implement the spirit of struggle emphasized in the report of the 20th CPC National Congress, that is, we must be brave and good at responding to challenges. This includes adhering to the spirit of struggle, strengthening the determination and courage of the whole party and the people of all ethnic groups in the country, and having the courage to face difficulties, taking into account development and security, and overcoming obstacles on the road ahead with unswerving efforts to open up a new situation for the development of the cause. There is no way out by avoiding contradictions. Only by daring to and being good at struggle can problems be solved, especially in a world of great contention. For example, in the face of Sino-US competition, we must abandon the mentality of luck and actively face challenges.
Finally, regarding foreign policy, China needs to continue to deepen its diplomatic efforts and look forward to the future. For example, China should use its development to drive the development of other developing countries, further improve the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, and increase China's international partners; carry out regional cooperation through projects such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP); accelerate the expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS countries, etc. In global governance, China should also make more contributions and assume greater responsibilities in the future. When safeguarding its own interests, it should hold high the two banners of fairness and justice and international law based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. Emphasize and promote the "common values" that China adheres to in more international occasions, respect the uniqueness of each country, and find the greatest common divisor on this basis.
In summary, China's rise to become a key force in the context of the global "rise of the East and decline of the West" is based on its systematic efforts in industrialization, transformation of population and land resource advantages, and cultural and spiritual support. China has provided a development path that is completely different from the West for developing countries, which has made China an "alternative challenger" to the Western model and formed a structural contradiction with the United States. In the face of the comprehensive strategic confrontation with the United States, including trade protectionism, technology and geopolitical competition, China should adhere to internal unity, promote high-quality economic development, implement the spirit of struggle, and promote a positive foreign policy aimed at safeguarding national interests and promoting global cooperation.
Source Guancha
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