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Immagine del redattoreGabriele Iuvinale

Xi Jinping's China also has an Achilles heel: agriculture that is at great risk of non-survival

Despite the fact that Beijing controls entire strategic supply chains such as rare earths or pharmaceuticals, The China Bureau of Earth Knowledgesosti that the national shortage of potassium for fertilizers is very serious. Moreover, China's import options are very limited because, from a resource perspective, potash is highly monopolized globally


China uses 9% of the world's arable land to feed 20% of its population, while using 33% of its fertilizer. According to the China Bureau of Earth Knowledge it is the domestic fertilizer industry that supports agricultural self-sufficiency on limited arable land.


But China is not self-sufficient in fertilizers needed for domestic agriculture.

Of the three main components of fertilizers - nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium - the first two are not lacking, but the third is not enough and the gap is huge. Because China is now very short of "potassium salt" and potassium salt is the main source of potassium, says the China Bureau of Earth Knowledge.


"56% of China's cultivated land needs "potassium supplementation". In general, the problem becomes more serious towards the southeast. The potassium content of the soil in Fujian, Hunan, Hubei, Guangdong and Hainan is very low, and it is very deficient in potassium. High efficiency potassium. The content is only half or even a quarter of that of the agricultural areas of Xinjiang and Guanzhong."


Comparison of high-efficiency potassium content and high-efficiency potassium content in China's nine major agricultural regions - Credit China Bureau of Earth Knowledge

Potassium deficiency in soil will seriously affect plant metabolism, increase the risk of pests, diseases and lodging, inhibit plant growth and lead to reduced yield, especially for bean and potato crops, which will seriously affect crop yields, the Chinese research body said.

In 2017, an incident occurred in Siziwang Banner, Inner Mongolia, where farmers used counterfeit and inferior fertilizer, resulting in a significant reduction in potato production on 20,000 acres. This batch of fake potassium sulfate fertilizer actually contained 0 potassium after testing.


In 2023, China's salt and potassium deficit reached 68%, and it had to import more than 10 million tons (11.57 million tons, US$463.61 billion). Currently, Beijing's import options are very limited because on the resource side, potassium is highly monopolized globally.

China's potash market is in short supply - Credit China Bureau of Earth Knowledge

Importing potash costs a lot of money - Credit China Bureau of Earth Knowledge

According to the United States Geological Survey, global recoverable potash reserves in 2023 amount to 3.6 billion tons (converted to K2O), with Canada, Belarus, Russia, and the United States accounting for 76%. China is second only to the United States, with 5%, which is less due to the country's arable land.


Global recoverable potash reserves (converted to K2O) exceed 3.6 billion tons, with Canada at 1.1 billion tons, Belarus at 750 million tons, Russia at 650 million tons, the United States at 220 million tons, and China at 180 million tons.


Global distribution of potash reserves - Credit China Bureau of Earth Knowledge


This 5% is mainly concentrated in three places: Qaidam Basin in Qinghai, Lop Nur Salt Lake in Xinjiang and the Salt Lake District in Northern Tibet. Because the development of Northern Tibet is too difficult, Qaidam and Lop Nur are currently mainly used. The three companies that produce it are Salt Lake Holdings (Qinghai), Zangge Holdings (Qinghai) and SDIC Luo Potassium (Xinjiang), which account for about 70% of the national production capacity.


The world's potash resources are divided into solid and liquid. Solid potash is obviously superior to liquid potash in terms of quality, size and development cost.


Canada, Belarus and Russia are all dominated by solid potash, such as the Nipa Basin in Russia, the potash belt in Saskatchewan, Canada, and the potash belt in New Brunswick, etc. The solid potash grade is up to 25-30%.


The Lanigan potash mine in Saskatchewan, Canada has recoverable reserves of 550 million tons, which is three times the total of China. There are still 9.4 billion tons of total potential resources.


In contrast, in China, 98% of potassium salt is brine. The brine grade of Qarhan potassium salt base is 1.95% ~ 1.50% potassium chloride, and the salt lake is also imbued with various elements such as magnesium, boron, etc. lithium, rubidium, etc. (magnesium, boron, lithium, rock salt, mirabilite, rubidium, cesium, bromine), and potassium is just one of them.


"According to the survey report, the average potassium chloride grade in Qaidam is only 0.46%, less than 1%. The salinity of the Dead Sea is about 34%."

So for China there is a problem of costs, as well as the quantity of potassium. If you wanted to separate potassium into brine the cost would be very high, which is much less simple and economical than the extraction of solid potassium where a set of operations such as crushing, grinding, flotation and filtration of solid minerals are needed.


"Of course, potassium brine is also of very high quality. For example, the Dead Sea, shared by Israel and Jordan, is the largest liquid potassium mine in the world, and the bromine (xiù) content of the Dead Sea is also very high they have also won the global bromine production by 70% (almost 70%)."


The salinity of the Dead Sea is about 34%.

Unfortunately, China's development technology for salt lake resources (boron, lithium, magnesium, and bromine) is not mature enough, and in the long run, it will have high cost and low yield.


Despite all the natural disadvantages, China has mined potash salt beyond imagination.


In 2023, global potash production will be nearly 40 million tons (39.35 million tons), and China will have 6 million tons, second only to Canada and Russia, using 5% of its reserves to reach 15% of its production capacity.

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